Earthquakes
Polls missed bigger on the midterms than in 2016
Democrats' midterm tsunami obscured a major polling miss: Surveys correctly anticipated a blue wave, but failed to capture its full force.Why it matters: Pollsters appear to have underestimated Democrats by a wider margin than they underestimated Republicans in 2016 or 2024 — even if they got the headline outcome right this time.By the numbers: Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by roughly 13 percentage points, compared with a final Silver Bulletin polling average of 8.9 points, according to an initial analysis by The Argument's Lakshya Jain.That roughly 4-point gap